Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
(+100/-120)-150
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 21, 2025, this matchup in the National League West holds significant importance, especially after the Dodgers edged out the D-Backs 4-3 in yesterday’s game. Both teams are vying for position, with the Dodgers currently holding a solid record of 30-19, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-23.
The Dodgers are projected to send Dustin May to the mound, who has had an average year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1-4 record despite being the 75th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. May’s numbers suggest he has been a bit unlucky, and he projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs today. However, his strikeout projection of 3.9 batters is concerning.
On the other side, Corbin Burnes, who boasts a 2.56 ERA and a solid 3-1 record, will take the hill for the Diamondbacks. Burnes is ranked 35th among starting pitchers and is coming off a stellar performance where he pitched 6 innings, allowing no earned runs. He projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, which is less efficient than his usual output.
Offensively, the Dodgers lead the league with the 1st best batting average and 2nd in home runs, while the Diamondbacks are not far behind, ranking 3rd in MLB for offensive performance. However, given the Dodgers’ strong lineup against Burnes — a pitcher known for high walk rates — they could capitalize on Burnes’s control issues, enhancing their chances of scoring runs.
With a game total set at 9.5 runs and the Dodgers favored at -140, the team holds an implied total of 5.07 runs, indicating confidence in their potent offense. As the Dodgers look to continue their winning ways, they aim to solidify their place atop the division against a competitive Diamondbacks squad.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+125)The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)Pavin Smith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.329 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .341 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #4 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Los Angeles Dodgers bats as a unit rank 4th- in baseball for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.10 Units / 35% ROI)