Twins vs Orioles Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Tuesday May 13, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Compared to their .332 overall projected rate, the .321 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.53 Units / 47% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+8.20 Units / 82% ROI)