Betting Tips and Odds for Phillies vs Rays – Thursday May 8th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies prepare for their matchup on May 8, 2025, the stakes are palpable. This game marks the third in a series, and both teams come in with contrasting fortunes: the Rays currently sit at 16-20, struggling with their season, while the Phillies boast a healthier 21-15 record, indicative of their solid play. Notably, Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies delivered a complete game shutout during his last appearance, showcasing his dominant form.

The matchup features two pitchers with distinct profiles. Ryan Pepiot is set to start for the Rays. Earning a Power Ranking of 95 out of approximately 350 pitchers, Pepiot presents an average yet inconsistent performance, evidenced by his 2-4 record and a 4.23 ERA. Projections suggest he’s expected to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which is below average. His struggles are compounded by a concerning 5.12 FIP, indicating that his luck may not hold. Facing him is Jesus Luzardo, who ranks 34th and enjoys an excellent ERA of 1.94. His projections also reflect a solid outing, projecting to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.6 innings.

Offensively, the teams are polarized. The Rays rank 19th overall, with a particularly troubling 25th rank in home runs. In contrast, the Phillies are the 8th best, alongside a strong team batting average of 4th. Their recent offensive output positions them well against Pepiot.

Despite the Rays’ underdog status, with a moneyline of +115, the matchup favors Luzardo and the Phillies to extend their winning streak, making this a game to watch for bettors looking at the odds.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.0) may lead us to conclude that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year with his 46.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Ryan Pepiot’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (60.6% compared to 49.4% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #24 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)