Player Rankings for Astros vs White Sox – 5/03/25

Houston Astros

@

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox host the Houston Astros on May 3, 2025, in the second game of this series, following a surprising 7-3 victory for the White Sox over the Astros yesterday. This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The White Sox sit at a dismal 9-23, while the Astros have a record of 16-15, indicating an above-average start.

Davis Martin will take the mound for the White Sox. Despite being projected as an average pitcher with a solid 3.24 ERA, he ranks as the 291st best starting pitcher in MLB, which places him among the weakest in the league. His last outing was impressive, as he pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. However, the projections indicate that he may not sustain that success, as his xFIP of 4.55 suggests that he could be due for regression.

On the other hand, Hunter Brown gets the nod for the Astros. He has been exceptional this season, boasting a 1.22 ERA and ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Brown’s last start was solid as well, where he allowed only 1 earned run over 6 innings while striking out 9 batters.

Offensively, the White Sox have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB in both batting average and home runs. The Astros are not without their offensive woes, ranking 23rd overall, but they still project to score significantly more runs than the White Sox today. With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the White Sox’s current moneyline of +185, they are seen as considerable underdogs, while the Astros are favored at -220.

As both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths, the Astros’ elite pitching and the White Sox’s shaky offense could set the stage for another victory for Houston.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (50% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #9 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Over the past week, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.7% up to 20%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Davis Martin has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 8.1% less often this year (63.6%) than he did last season (71.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Thaiss has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+185)
  The 4th-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 84% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.05 Units / 61% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.60 Units / 46% ROI)