Boxscore for Rays vs Yankees – 5/2/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees

On May 2, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in the first game of their series. The Yankees currently sit with an 18-13 record, showcasing a strong start to their season, while the Rays struggle at 14-17. New York’s offense ranks as the 1st best in MLB, highlighted by their incredible ability to hit for average and power, leading the league in both batting average and home runs. Comparatively, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks only 16th, with their power numbers sitting at a disappointing 21st in home runs.

The Yankees will send out Max Fried, who has been nothing short of sensational this season. Fried boasts a perfect 5-0 record with an impressive ERA of 1.19, making him the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his last start on April 27, he pitched 6 innings of shutout ball, further solidifying his elite status. Fried projects to pitch 6.3 innings today, allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average, which bodes well against a Rays lineup that has shown inconsistency.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who has a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.24. While Pepiot has been above average, he hasn’t been able to match Fried’s level of performance. The projections indicate that Pepiot may struggle, expected to allow 3.0 earned runs with a tendency for high hits and walks.

Given the Yankees’ current form and their offensive prowess, they are a strong favorite heading into this matchup. New York has an implied team total of 5.13 runs, while Tampa Bay sits at a low 3.37 runs. This game presents a clear advantage for the Yankees, especially with Fried on the mound.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Ryan Pepiot’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (61.1% vs. 49.4% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jose Caballero has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.5-mph dropping to 75.6-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kameron Misner, Jose Caballero, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-235)
  The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Typically, bats like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ryan Pepiot.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.67 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.55 Units / 65% ROI)