Tickets Information for Rays vs Padres – April 27, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will look to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Rays in the third game of their interleague series at Petco Park after suffering a 4-1 defeat in their previous matchup on April 26, 2025. The Padres, currently standing at 17-10, are enjoying a solid season and are positioned well in the standings. In contrast, the Rays sit at 13-14, struggling to find consistency with an underwhelming performance so far.

San Diego is projected to start Randy Vasquez, who has had a rough outing recently, allowing 6 earned runs in just 2 innings during his last start on April 21, 2025. Despite his overall record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.97, Vasquez’s 6.60 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate this season and could be due for a regression. His projections indicate he will pitch for approximately 5.0 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but he also faces a low-strikeout profile that could play into the Padres’ favor, given their ability to make contact.

On the mound for the Rays will be Zack Littell, who has struggled mightily with a 0-5 record and a disappointing 5.28 ERA. However, the projections show he might perform slightly better today, as he is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings with 2.7 earned runs allowed. Littell’s ability to strike out batters is limited, which could be a factor against the Padres’ low-strikeout offense.

Both teams have shown some offensive prowess, with the Padres ranking 4th in team batting average while the Rays come in at 7th. However, neither team excels in home runs, ranking 20th and 21st, respectively. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive, as both teams are given equal standing in the betting markets with a moneyline set at -110. Expect the Padres to leverage their stronger lineup and bullpen, currently ranked 7th in MLB, to turn the tide in their favor.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Zack Littell will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball bats like Travis Jankowski generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Tirso Ornelas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Tirso Ornelas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Danny Jansen has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 42% ROI)