Phillies vs Mets Picks and Betting Trends – 4/23/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 23, 2025, in what is the third game of their series. The Mets, currently leading the matchup with a solid record of 17-7, are enjoying a strong season. In contrast, the Phillies sit at 13-11, marking an above-average start, yet they need to gain traction to keep pace in the National League East.

In their previous game, the Mets secured a victory, continuing their good form. David Peterson is slated to take the mound for New York. Although he’s ranked as the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Peterson has shown promise with a 3.27 ERA and a projected average of 5.5 innings pitched. However, his expected metrics suggest he has been slightly unlucky this season, potentially pointing to better performance ahead.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler, projected to start for Philadelphia, is among the elite, ranked 5th in the league. With a solid 2-1 record and a 3.73 ERA, Wheeler is expected to perform well, as he averages 5.7 innings and has a high strikeout rate of 33.6%. However, his projections indicate he might also be due for some positive regression.

Offensively, the Mets rank 19th in MLB, while the Phillies boast the 5th best offense. This series features a significant contrast in offensive capabilities, with Philadelphia’s lineup being more potent, especially in on-base scenarios. The Game Total currently sits at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest.

Betting lines favor the Phillies slightly, with a moneyline of -120 against the Mets at +100. The projections lean toward a competitive game, making it a captivating matchup for bettors and fans alike.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Zack Wheeler’s 2430-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  David Peterson has averaged 17.2 outs per GS since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Nimmo has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 93% ROI)