Reds vs Orioles Match Preview and Winning Probability – Sunday April 20, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Baltimore Orioles

On April 20, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Cincinnati Reds in an interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are looking to build on a recent win, having defeated the Reds 9-5 in their last game on April 19. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles holding a record of 9-11 and the Reds at 10-11, positioning them in the lower tier of the standings.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Charlie Morton for the Orioles and Randy Wynne for the Reds. Morton is having a rough start to his season, with an 0-4 record and an alarming ERA of 8.84. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he has been unlucky, indicated by his xFIP of 4.98, which suggests he might fare better going forward. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, projecting to strike out 6.6 batters but also allowing a concerning 4.7 hits per game.

In contrast, Randy Wynne has also faced challenges this season, projected to pitch only 4.0 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs with a strikeout rate of 2.3 batters. The Reds’ offense ranks 22nd overall in MLB, which could play to the Orioles’ advantage if Morton can capitalize on the matchup.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 10th in the league, boasting a powerful lineup that has produced the 6th most home runs. Their best hitter is on a hot streak, having posted a 1.333 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Reds’ best hitter has struggled recently with a batting average of just .588 during the same timeframe.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Orioles as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -195, this matchup offers an intriguing opportunity for bettors as the projections favor Baltimore’s chances to outperform their implied team total of 5.21 runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  This season, Elly De La Cruz has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.7 mph compared to last year’s 94 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Charlie Morton’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (44.8 compared to 38.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Bats such as Jackson Holliday with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Randy Wynne who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+170)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 away games (+0.70 Units / 1% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 30% ROI)