Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Twins – Tuesday, April 15, 2025

New York Mets

@

Minnesota Twins

On April 15, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the New York Mets at Target Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Twins are currently struggling, holding a record of 5-12, while the Mets have found success with an impressive 11-5 start to the season. Last night, the Twins fell to the Mets, further emphasizing their rough start.

The Twins are projected to start Bailey Ober, who has had a challenging year thus far with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 7.11, marking him as one of the more unfortunate pitchers in the league. Despite being ranked the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB, Ober’s xFIP of 4.68 suggests he may be poised for a turnaround, although his performance against the Mets’ relatively low-strikeout offense could limit his chances to capitalize on his skill set.

In contrast, Tylor Megill of the Mets has been stellar, boasting a record of 2-1 and an elite ERA of 0.63. His ranking as the 85th best starting pitcher reflects an above-average performance, although his xFIP of 3.49 indicates he may not sustain this level of success in the long run. Megill’s high walk rate could present an opportunity against the Twins, who are among the least patient offenses in the league.

From a betting perspective, the Twins are currently +100 with an average implied total of 3.90 runs, while the Mets are at -120 and an average implied total of 4.10 runs. Given the Twins’ solid bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, they may have an edge in a close contest, despite their offensive struggles.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball bats, Tylor Megill and his 34.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today’s outing facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Brandon Nimmo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.3-mph average to last year’s 93.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bailey Ober has used his slider 15.9% more often this season (27.8%) than he did last season (11.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tylor Megill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)