Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Red Sox – April 07, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

On April 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park in what marks the first game of a series between these two American League East rivals. The Red Sox currently sit at 6-4, riding a wave of momentum after an impressive 18-7 victory against the New York Yankees in their last game on April 6. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are hovering at .500 with a 5-5 record, having suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat to the Atlanta Braves in their previous outing.

Boston’s starting pitcher, Richard Fitts, is projected to face off against Jose Berrios of Toronto. Fitts, ranking as the 240th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rocky start to the season with a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA. However, the projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.73, which is significantly better than his ERA. He is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs.

On the other side, Berrios has struggled as well, posting a 0-1 record and a troubling 6.75 ERA. His 3.40 xFIP indicates that he, too, might improve if fortune shines on him. Notably, he faced a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup, which could prove challenging given his high strikeout rate of 28.3%.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 5th in MLB, showcasing a powerful lineup despite ranking 27th in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense is 25th overall, struggling to find consistency. The Red Sox’s talent at the plate, combined with their recent form, gives them an edge in this matchup. As the betting markets indicate, with a moneyline set at -130 for Boston and +110 for Toronto, this promises to be a closely contested game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over groundball batters, Jose Berrios and his 32.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today’s outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Richard Fitts in the 12th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Alex Bregman has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year’s 89-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Trevor Story, Triston Casas).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 69% ROI)