Yankees vs Tigers Picks and Odds – June 23, 2026

New York Yankees

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Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Carlos Rodon has posted a .257 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jasson Dominguez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the New York Yankees in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .323, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Casey Mize is expected to tally an average of 5.6 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Matt Vierling’s speed has increased this year. His 27.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.4 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.
• The 9.5% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers ranks them as the #5 club in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.