Yankees vs Astros Game Time – 9/04/2025

New York Yankees

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 4, 2025, both teams find themselves in solid positions. The Astros hold a record of 77-63, while the Yankees are slightly ahead at 77-62. With the postseason looming, this matchup carries significant weight for both squads as they vie for playoff positioning.

In a tightly contested series, the Yankees took the last game against the Astros, setting the stage for a crucial third game. Houston will send Cristian Javier to the mound, who has had a mixed season as indicated by his #226 ranking among starting pitchers. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.38, his projected performance suggests he may struggle, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs over 4.5 innings pitched today. The Yankees’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB with 239 home runs, presents a daunting challenge for the right-hander, especially given his propensity for fly balls and walks.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon will take the hill for the Yankees. With a solid record of 15-7 and an ERA of 3.18, he ranks #70 among pitchers, indicating his effectiveness this season. Rodon’s average projection of 5.5 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs complements his status as a reliable asset in the rotation. However, he will need to be cautious against a Houston offense that, while not as explosive, ranks 13th overall.

According to the projections, the Astros have an implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Yankees are projected at 4.50 runs, hinting at a close contest. Betting markets are treating this matchup as a toss-up, making it all the more intriguing as both clubs look to make a definitive statement.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity has decreased 2.1 mph this year (93.5 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)
  The best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball batters, Cristian Javier and his 45.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup squaring off against 3 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.9-mph to 99.3-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 137 games (+18.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 42% ROI)