Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs Phillies Match – Tuesday March 31, 2026

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals Insights

• PJ Poulin – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects PJ Poulin to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 35 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Joey Wiemer – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Wiemer is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under Total Bases
  James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Andrew Painter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Andrew Painter will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under Stolen Bases
  This season, there has been a decline in Brandon Marsh’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.27 ft/sec last year to 27.41 ft/sec currently.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts