Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-145
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Citi Field on April 6, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their early-season standings. The Mets currently sit at 5-3, while the Blue Jays are just behind at 5-4. This matchup is particularly intriguing, not only because it’s an interleague affair but also due to the recent performances of both teams. In their last outing on April 5, the Mets edged out the Blue Jays with a 3-2 victory, adding to the intensity of this series.
On the mound, the Mets are projected to start David Peterson, who has shown promise early this season with a solid 3.00 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 1-0. Peterson’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky thus far, as his 2.22 xFIP indicates he could perform even better moving forward. In his last start on March 31, he pitched well, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, and 5 hits allowed. Conversely, the Blue Jays will counter with Bowden Francis, who has a 3.00 ERA but a concerning 4.69 xFIP, suggesting he may regress as the season progresses.
Offensively, the Mets have struggled, ranking 43rd in MLB, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 21st. However, the projections for this game favor the Mets, who have a current moneyline of -145, indicating an implied team total of 4.04 runs. The Blue Jays, with a moneyline of +125, have a much lower implied total of 3.46 runs. With Peterson’s left-handed pitching against a low-strikeout Blue Jays lineup, the Mets may find an opportunity to build on their recent success and capitalize on Francis’s weaknesses.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Bowden Francis’s four-seam fastball utilization has risen by 7.9% from last season to this one (49.2% to 57.1%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)Bo Bichette’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 45% to 61.5%.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
- The 7.3% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays grades them out as the #24 team in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-145)Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1700/-50000)This year, there has been a decline in Pete Alonso’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.09 ft/sec last year to 23.5 ft/sec currently.Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-145)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 124 games (+20.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+3.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)