Weather Forecast for White Sox vs Guardians – September 13, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 13, 2025, they find themselves in a critical position in the American League Central. The Guardians currently hold a record of 76-71, making it a solid season for them, while the White Sox struggle with a dismal 57-91 record. In their most recent matchup, the Guardians delivered a commanding 4-0 shutout, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses.

Projected to start for the Guardians is left-hander Parker Messick, who has impressed in his limited appearances this season with a 2-0 record and an exceptional ERA of 1.93. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.36, indicating he might not maintain this level of performance. Messick’s average projection for today’s game includes allowing 2.3 earned runs over 4.9 innings, which is a bit concerning given that he’s also projected to give up 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks.

On the opposing mound, the White Sox will give the ball to right-hander Davis Martin. While Martin has made 23 starts this season and boasts a 6-9 record with a 4.03 ERA, his underlying numbers indicate he’s among the less effective pitchers in MLB. His xFIP of 4.66 suggests a potential downturn in performance, particularly against a Guardians offense that, despite ranking 29th in the league, is still capable of capitalizing on Martin’s inconsistencies.

For bettors, the Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -165 and an average implied team total of 4.18 runs, while the struggling White Sox sit as underdogs at +145, with a low implied total of 3.32 runs. With the Guardians looking to build momentum and maintain their edge in the playoff hunt, they have the advantage in this matchup, especially with the recent history of success against the White Sox.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Martin to throw 85 pitches today (15th-most of all pitchers on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Chase Meidroth is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+145)
  The Chicago White Sox projected offense grades out as the 3rd-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Parker Messick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians hitters as a group rank 30th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 6.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 145 games (+10.64 Units / 6% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 140 games (+14.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Kyle Manzardo has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+7.15 Units / 79% ROI)