Weather Forecast for Rockies vs Giants – September 26, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal positions. The Giants, sitting at 78-81, have had an average season, while the Rockies are languishing at a dismal 43-116, marking one of the worst campaigns in recent memory. In their most recent outing, the Rockies were unable to turn things around, falling to the Giants in a previous matchup.

On the mound, Trevor McDonald is set to start for San Francisco. Despite being ranked as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB, McDonald has shown flashes of promise this season with a solid ERA of 3.38. However, projections suggest that he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his higher xERA of 5.16. McDonald will face a Rockies offense that strikes out more than any other team in the league, which could play to his advantage given his low strikeout rate.

German Marquez, projected to start for Colorado, has struggled mightily this season with a 6.49 ERA and a 3-15 win-loss record. Although his xFIP of 5.21 hints at some bad luck, it’s hard to overlook his overall performance. Marquez’s projections indicate he will allow 3.0 earned runs on average today, which is less than ideal against a Giants lineup that, while ranked 22nd in MLB, has the potential to exploit his weaknesses.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs and the Giants favored heavily with a moneyline of -230, the expectation is for San Francisco to capitalize on Colorado’s struggles. The Giants’ offense, despite its flaws, is projected to score an impressive 4.78 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 3.22 runs. This game could be pivotal for the Giants as they look to finish the season strong, while the Rockies continue to search for any glimmer of hope.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Hitters such as Mickey Moniak with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor McDonald who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Trevor McDonald’s 1990-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 9th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Bryce Eldridge has a ton of pop (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher German Marquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (7th percentile K%) — great news for Eldridge.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 70 away games (+17.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
  Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games at home (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)