Weather for Yankees vs Rays Game – (7/11/24

New York Yankees

@

Tampa Bay Rays

Anticipation is building as the Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on July 11, 2024, at Tropicana Field. This American League East showdown features two teams on very different trajectories. While the Rays are sitting at 45-47, having an average season, the Yankees are flying high at 56-38, having a great season. This game marks the third in their series, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

Shane Baz is slated to start for the Rays. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks him as the 114th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s had an average season. Baz has a 4.50 ERA this year, with an xFIP of 3.61 suggesting some bad luck. He’s expected to pitch 4.5 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters on average. However, Baz’s high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees offense ranked 2nd in home runs this season.

Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Yankees. With a 3.41 ERA and ranked 35th among starting pitchers, he’s been a reliable arm. Cortes is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. His high-flyball rate may not be a significant disadvantage against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in home runs. However, Cortes will need to navigate a Rays team ranked 5th in stolen bases.

The Yankees’ offensive prowess is evident—ranked 4th overall, 10th in batting average, and 2nd in home runs. In contrast, the Rays’ offense ranks 23rd, struggling with a 21st-best team batting average. However, the Rays have an edge in speed on the basepaths. Over the last week, Brandon Lowe has been the standout for the Rays with a .350 batting average and a 1.035 OPS, while Ben Rice has been on fire for the Yankees, notching 5 home runs and 10 RBIs with a 1.028 OPS.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Yankees’ moneyline set at -120 (52% implied win probability) and the Rays at +100 (48% implied win probability). Given Cortes’ strong season and the Yankees’ offensive firepower, they seem poised to edge out the Rays in this pivotal matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Nestor Cortes’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order grades out as the best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Compared to the average hurler, Shane Baz has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -10.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.9-mph figure last season has fallen off to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 87 games (+23.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)