Weather for Rockies vs Giants Game – 5/3/25

Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Colorado Rockies on May 3, 2025, in what shapes up to be a compelling National League West matchup. The Giants are enjoying a strong season with a 20-13 record, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 6-26. The Giants won yesterday’s game against the Rockies in dominating fashion, shutting them out 4-0.

Jordan Hicks is slated to start for the Giants, and while his 1-3 record and 6.12 ERA suggest difficulties this season, advanced metrics indicate he might be due for better performance. His 3.93 xFIP suggests his struggles could be partly due to bad luck. Hicks projects to pitch 5.6 innings today with an average of 2.0 earned runs allowed, which would be a strong outing given the Rockies’ offensive woes.

In contrast, Bradley Blalock will take the mound for Colorado. Blalock has had a challenging season as well, with a 10.29 ERA, and his last start saw him allow 6 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. His projections today indicate a tough outing, as he is expected to allow 2.7 earned runs over 4.5 innings.

The Giants offense ranks 17th overall, which is average, and their best hitter has been performing well lately, boasting a .421 batting average over the past week. The Rockies, however, have the league’s worst offense and are struggling to generate runs, with their best hitter achieving just a .267 batting average this season.

With the Giants’ strong bullpen ranked 4th in the league, they appear to have the edge in both pitching and offensive production, making them a solid betting favorite at -280. Given the current odds, projections favor the Giants to score around 5.28 runs today, while the Rockies are projected for just 3.22 runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+205)
  Bradley Blalock is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Kyle Farmer is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Michael Toglia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jordan Hicks has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.4% less often this year (35.7%) than he did last year (44.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Mike Yastrzemski is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)