Weather for Cardinals vs Red Sox Game – 4/4/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox

On April 4, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park in a pivotal Interleague matchup. Both teams enter this game following notable wins; the Red Sox topped their previous opponent 8-4, while the Cardinals triumphed with a score of 12-5. This game marks the first in a series between the two teams and is crucial given their contrasting seasons so far.

The Red Sox sit at 3-4, struggling to find their footing early in the season as their offense ranks a dismal 37th in the league. Notably, they rely on Walker Buehler, who is projected to start today. Buehler, with a troubling ERA of 8.31 and a Power Ranking of 179th among starters, has had a rough couple of outings. While he has been unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.78, the Cardinals’ powerful lineup—ranking 5th overall—could exploit his vulnerabilities.

On the other hand, the Cardinals boast a record of 4-2, riding high on the performances of their top hitters. Their projected starter, Erick Fedde, comes off an impressive outing where he allowed just one earned run in six innings, contributing to his stellar ERA of 1.50. Though Fedde’s strikeout rate is lower than average, his ability to control the game will be crucial against a Red Sox offense that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 2nd in the league this season.

As the Red Sox aim to bounce back and gain momentum, the matchup favors the Cardinals, who are projected to capitalize on Buehler’s struggles. With a high game total of 9.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these factors unfold at Fenway Park.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Erick Fedde (42.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Boston’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball bats like Victor Scott generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Walker Buehler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (19.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Walker Buehler in the 20th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Erick Fedde will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Story in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Erick Fedde has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.40 Units / 44% ROI)