Weather for Braves vs Brewers Game – 6/11/25

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on June 11, 2025, at American Family Field, the stakes are high for both teams. The Brewers, currently holding a record of 36-32, are experiencing an above-average season, while the Braves sit at a disappointing 28-38. Just yesterday, the Brewers secured a 4-1 victory over the Braves, adding to Atlanta’s struggles.

On the mound, Milwaukee is set to start Chad Patrick, who has had a mixed season with a 3-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.84. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.21, indicating potential regression. In contrast, Atlanta will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who boasts a solid 4-4 record and a great ERA of 3.24. Schwellenbach ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, significantly outpacing Patrick’s 149th ranking.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to find consistent production. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd overall, which could be crucial against a Braves team that ranks 26th in that category. The Braves, while average overall, have a better offensive ranking at 15th, but their lack of speed on the basepaths could hinder their scoring opportunities.

Given the projections, the Brewers have a low implied team total of 3.32 runs, while the Braves sit at 4.18. Despite the odds favoring Atlanta, the Brewers’ recent performance and Schwellenbach’s struggles in his last start may provide an opening for Milwaukee to capitalize on their home advantage. As these two teams clash, expect a tightly contested matchup that could swing in favor of the Brewers if they can exploit their speed and Patrick can outpitch expectations.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has recorded 18.6 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Drake Baldwin is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Considering the 1.66 disparity between Chad Patrick’s 2.84 ERA and his 4.50 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and figures to negatively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 76-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eric Haase, Jake Bauers, Rhys Hoskins).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 66% ROI)