Watch the Brewers vs Reds Game Highlights – August 31st, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers prepare for their matchup on August 31, 2024, the stakes remain high, particularly for the Brewers, who are looking to maintain their strong position in the National League Central. Currently, the Brewers hold a record of 79-56, while the Reds are struggling at 64-72, marking a below-average season. In their previous game on August 30, the Reds were blanked by the Brewers in a shocking 14-0 loss, indicative of the disparity between the two clubs.

On the mound, Cincinnati will send out right-hander Fernando Cruz, who has had a tumultuous year with a 3-8 record and a troubling 5.17 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he has shown signs of being unlucky with a much lower xFIP of 2.96. However, Cruz’s inconsistency could be trouble against a Brewers lineup that has a penchant for patience, ranking third in the league in walks.

In contrast, Milwaukee will counter with Frankie Montas, who has posted a 6-9 record and a 4.64 ERA this season. While his numbers suggest he’s having an average year, Montas’s ability to work deep into games—projected for 5.5 innings—could expose a Reds bullpen ranked 25th in MLB.

The projections suggest that Cincinnati will score about 4.60 runs, while Milwaukee is expected to notch around 5.26 runs. With betting markets displaying a close game outlook, the Reds may face an uphill battle in recovering from their previous day’s setback.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Frankie Montas has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 7.93 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.89 — a 0.96 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jackson Chourio has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Bauers, Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+115)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.2) suggests that Dominic Smith has suffered from bad luck this year with his 11.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 130 games (+12.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)