Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Head-to-Head Insights June 12th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

On June 12, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Cubs are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 41-27, standing firmly in the National League Central. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 28-41, highlighting a stark difference in their performance this year.

In their last outing, the Cubs’ pitching ace Jameson Taillon delivered a solid performance, continuing a trend of reliable starts. Taillon, a right-handed pitcher, has a Win/Loss record of 6-3 and a commendable ERA of 3.54. However, his underlying stats suggest he may be due for a regression, as indicated by a FIP of 4.83, which is significantly higher than his ERA. He projects to pitch about 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs but is expected to struggle with hits and walks.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney is slated to take the mound for the Pirates. Heaney’s record of 3-4 and ERA of 3.24 suggests he has been effective, but his xFIP of 4.26 indicates that he too might face challenges ahead. His projections are less favorable, projecting him to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cubs rank as the 4th best in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that includes a top-performing hitter who has recorded 8 hits and 4 home runs in the past week. Conversely, the Pirates’ offense ranks a dismal 27th, struggling to generate runs consistently. With the projections favoring the Cubs to score an impressive 4.35 runs, they enter this matchup as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -200.

Given the stark contrasts between the two teams, especially with the Cubs’ powerful offense against the Pirates’ faltering attack, this game shapes up to be a critical one for the Cubs as they aim to solidify their standing in the division.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Andrew Heaney’s slider percentage has fallen by 13.9% from last year to this one (27.9% to 14%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In comparison to his 95.3-mph average last year, Oneil Cruz’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 97.5 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+175)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup profiles as the 4th-weakest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-205)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-205)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 58 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-135/+105)
  Jameson Taillon has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)