Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Brewers vs Braves – Wednesday, August 06, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 6, 2025, they find themselves in a difficult position. With a record of 47-65, the Braves are enduring a tough season, especially compared to the Brewers, who sit comfortably at 69-44. Notably, in their last game, the Braves fell short against the Brewers, further emphasizing their struggles this year.

On the mound, Spencer Strider is projected to start for Atlanta. He has had a mixed season, currently holding a 5-8 record with a respectable ERA of 3.71. Although he ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has the skills to perform well, his projections suggest he might allow 2.1 earned runs but struggle with 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks on average. This inconsistency could be a concern against a potent Brewers lineup.

Opposing him will be Jose Quintana, who has had a surprisingly effective season with an 8-4 record and an ERA of 3.50. While he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics, his low ERA suggests he might be benefiting from some good fortune. However, with projections indicating he could allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.8 hits today, the Braves offense, despite ranking 19th overall, may find opportunities to capitalize.

While the Braves’ bullpen ranks 7th best in MLB, providing a solid back-end option, the team’s recent offensive struggles—particularly their 21st rank in batting average—may hinder their ability to support Strider effectively. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting an average expectation for scoring. With the Braves favored at -140, they may need a strong performance from Strider to overcome their recent woes and capitalize on their home advantage.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker rate has jumped by 15% from last year to this one (30.4% to 45.4%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  William Contreras has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 98.3-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starting pitchers, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 69 games (+24.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.15 Units / 45% ROI)