Twins vs Mariners Game Highlights – Sunday, June 1, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Seattle Mariners

On June 1, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are currently in a tight race with identical records of 31-26, showcasing above-average performances this season. The Mariners are currently ranked 11th in MLB offense, buoyed by their impressive power numbers, while the Twins struggle with a ranking of 23rd, reflecting a lack of firepower in their lineup.

In their last game on May 31, the Mariners edged out the Twins in a closely contested 5-4 victory, which may give them a psychological edge heading into this matchup. Luis Castillo is slated to take the mound for the Mariners, possessing a solid 4-3 record and an exceptional ERA of 3.32. His strikeout projection of 6.4 batters today highlights his ability to dominate opposing hitters. However, he does face concerns with a high number of hits allowed, averaging 4.8 per outing, which could be a key factor given the Twins’ need for offensive sparks.

Chris Paddack will start for the Twins, holding a less favorable 2-5 record and a notable ERA of 3.92. The projections suggest he might struggle, particularly against a Mariners lineup that has hit 78 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB. His tendency to give up fly balls could spell trouble against such a powerful offense.

With the Mariners sitting as favorites at a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 3.98 runs, they are positioned well. Given Castillo’s solid performance metrics and the Mariners’ offensive production, they may very well exceed expectations in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Chris Paddack’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (51.2 vs. 42.9% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Ty France is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (94.3 mph) below where it was last year (95.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  J.P. Crawford is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)