Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)-160
On April 30, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Kansas City Royals at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the second game of their series. The Rays, currently with a record of 14-15, are struggling this season, while the Royals sit at an even 15-15, indicating a slightly better performance. In their previous matchup, the Rays fell to the Royals by a score of 3-1, a result that continues to highlight the Rays’ difficulties this season.
Tampa Bay is projected to start Drew Rasmussen, who ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rasmussen has a solid ERA of 2.10 but has shown some signs of luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.03. He is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs, which is a decent projection against a struggling Royals offense that ranks 30th in MLB. The Royals will counter with Noah Cameron, who has been less effective and is projected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs.
Offensively, the Rays rank 15th overall, with a strong batting average of .270, while the Royals’ offense has been dismal, sitting at the bottom of the league in several categories, including home runs. The projections suggest that despite the Rays’ current struggles, they have the potential to capitalize on the Royals’ weaknesses.
With a high implied team total of 4.42 runs for the Rays, they are favored to win this matchup. If Drew Rasmussen can leverage his strikeout ability against a low-strikeout Royals lineup, the Rays may turn their season around and gain a much-needed victory.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Bobby Witt Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Considering that groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Drew Rasmussen and his 46.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today’s matchup facing 1 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Taylor Walls has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 75.8-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly rank 10th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)Curtis Mead has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)