Track the Live Score for Pirates vs Marlins – 3/28/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 28, 2025, the stakes are moderate, given that this matchup marks the second game of their series. The Marlins are riding high with a 1-0 record this season, bolstered by a recent win, while the Pirates are hoping to bounce back from a rough start with an 0-1 record.

Connor Gillispie is projected to take the mound for the Marlins, coming off a performance that ranks him as the #418 best starting pitcher in MLB, underscoring the challenges he faces. The projections suggest he’ll pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out just 3.8 batters. Comparatively, Mitch Keller, slated to pitch for the Pirates, also finds himself among the lower ranks of MLB pitchers. Keller projects to pitch slightly longer at 4.9 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which is above average for him, despite his below-average strikeout rate of 4.8 batters.

Team statistics reveal a troubling narrative for both offenses, with the Marlins ranking 27th in MLB for overall offense and 27th in home runs, while the Pirates sit even lower at 28th in overall offense and 25th in home runs. Both squads struggle to produce offensively, which could lead to a low-scoring affair.

With a Game Total currently set at 8.0 runs, the Marlins are listed as an underdog at +120, indicating a modest chance to upset the odds given their recent form, especially with a strong start to the season. On the flip side, the Pirates, favored at -145, need to leverage their home-field advantage to find momentum and elevate their standing in a tough division. A close game is anticipated, as both teams look to establish their footing early in the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Batters such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Connor Gillispie who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Connor Gillispie – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Connor Gillispie to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Derek Hill will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+19.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.00 Units / 14% ROI)