Track the Live Score for Padres vs Dodgers – 10/11/2024

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the National League Division Series heats up, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are set to clash in a pivotal Game 5 at Dodger Stadium on October 11, 2024. The Dodgers, with their league-leading offense, are slight betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%. They are looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the elite arm of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 12th-ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his impressive rank, Yamamoto’s projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest a mixed performance, with only 4.8 innings pitched and 4.3 strikeouts on average.

On the flip side, the Padres, led by Yu Darvish, will aim to exploit any opportunity against the Dodgers’ powerhouse lineup. Darvish, ranked 71st among starting pitchers, has shown resilience with a 7-3 record and a 3.31 ERA this year. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he might be due for regression. The Padres’ offense, ranked 6th overall, is no slouch, boasting the top team batting average in MLB this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on fire recently, with a .438 batting average and 1.688 OPS over the last week, adding a dynamic threat to the Padres’ lineup.

Both teams feature top-tier bullpens, with the Padres ranked 3rd and the Dodgers 5th, suggesting a tightly contested matchup should the game be decided late. With the Dodgers’ offense leading in home runs and the Padres excelling in batting average, this game promises to be a classic showdown of power versus contact. As the series stands on a knife’s edge, expect tension and fireworks in Los Angeles.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yu Darvish to throw 74 pitches today (least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+130)
  The weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the San Diego Padres.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Will Smith is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 95 games (+22.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 103 games (+20.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+195/-260)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 35% ROI)