Track the Live Score for Orioles vs Yankees – 6/21/2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on June 21, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently boasting a record of 43-32, are in solid contention this season, while the Orioles sit at 33-42, struggling to find consistency. In their last game, the Yankees secured a win against the Orioles, further solidifying their position as they aim to continue their winning ways.

Clarke Schmidt is slated to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite a mixed season with a 3-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.16, Schmidt’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.08. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his average performance this year. His strikeout rate of 5.4 batters per game is decent, but he needs to improve on allowing hits, with a projection of 4.9.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Zach Eflin. With a better win-loss record of 6-3 and an ERA of 4.81, Eflin’s performance is also marked by some inconsistency. His xFIP of 4.12 suggests he might be due for an upswing, and he projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing about 3.2 earned runs. However, his strikeout rate is below-average at 4.5, which could be a concern against a potent Yankees lineup.

The Yankees’ offense ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their ability to hit for power, with a strong home run tally. This could pose problems for Eflin, who faces a high-walk Yankees offense, though his low walk rate may mitigate some of that threat. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation of scoring, and the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -170, reflecting a strong outlook for their chances in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all starting pitchers, Zach Eflin’s fastball velocity of 90.9 mph is in the 18th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Cedric Mullins, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Clarke Schmidt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Giancarlo Stanton has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zach Eflin doesn’t generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Stanton.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.32 Units / 22% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)