Track the Live Score for Marlins vs Red Sox – 8/17/2025

Miami Marlins

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Boston Red Sox

On August 17, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Miami Marlins at Fenway Park in the third game of their interleague series. This matchup comes on the heels of a solid win for the Red Sox, who defeated the Marlins 7-5 in their last outing. As the season progresses, Boston sits at 68-56, enjoying an above-average performance, while Miami lingers below .500 at 58-65.

The Red Sox are set to send Garrett Crochet to the mound, who is currently the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.48 this year. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings, Crochet has generally been reliable, projecting to pitch approximately 6.1 innings with a solid strikeout rate of 7.3 batters.

In contrast, the Marlins will counter with Janson Junk, whose season has been less inspiring. With a 4.06 ERA and a less-than-stellar 11% strikeout rate, Junk is deemed a low-strikeout pitcher, which could pose issues against a Red Sox offense that ranks 5th best in MLB. While Junk has been unlucky this season—his FIP being 1.07 points lower than his ERA—his projected performance today indicates a troublesome outing, projecting only 4.9 innings with 3.2 earned runs allowed.

Betting lines reflect the disparity in performance, with the Red Sox positioned as heavy favorites at -245. With their potent offense and a top-ranked bullpen (#4), the Red Sox appear poised to capitalize on Miami’s struggles, projecting a team total of 5.13 runs compared to the Marlins’ lowly 3.37. If Boston’s offense can exploit Junk’s weaknesses and Crochet can bounce back from his last start, the Red Sox are likely to secure a crucial win at home.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Compared to average, Janson Junk has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -7.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Boston’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Xavier Edwards, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Wiemer, Heriberto Hernandez, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Garrett Crochet has gone to his four-seamer 14.6% less often this year (39.1%) than he did last year (53.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Trevor Story has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Story.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-255)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 59 games (+17.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+12.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)