Track the Live Score for Braves vs Angels – 8/17/2024

Atlanta Braves

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 17, 2024, they come in with an impressive season, boasting a record of 64-57, while the Angels struggle with a disappointing 52-69 mark. The Braves, currently holding a solid position in the standings, are looking to capitalize on their strong performance, especially against a team that ranks 24th in the league offensively. Meanwhile, the Angels are not contending for a playoff spot and have been on a downward spiral.

In their last game, the Braves showcased their power with a dominant performance, while the Angels continued to flounder. Atlanta’s Jorge Soler has been particularly effective lately, hitting .375 with three home runs over the past week, and his contributions could be crucial in this matchup.

On the mound, Griffin Canning is projected to start for the Angels. Canning has struggled this season, holding a 4-10 record and an ERA of 5.11, ranking him as the 251st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He tends to allow an average of 3.2 earned runs and 5.6 hits per outing, which bodes poorly against a Braves lineup that ranks 10th in home runs.

On the other hand, Chris Sale is set to take the mound for Atlanta. Sale has been nothing short of elite this season, with a 13-3 record and an impressive 2.61 ERA, making him the 4th best starting pitcher in the league. The projections suggest that Sale will allow just 2.3 earned runs, giving the Braves a significant edge on the mound.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, and the Angels facing a low implied team total of 3.27 runs, the Braves are favored to continue their success against a struggling Los Angeles squad. This matchup presents a classic case of a strong pitcher going up against a weak offense, which could heavily influence the outcome.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Chris Sale’s four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 6.2% from last year to this one (43.1% to 36.9%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Austin Riley has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 96.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .337 overall projected rate, the .325 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Griffin Canning’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph fall off from last year’s 94-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Despite posting a .212 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Drury has experienced some negative variance given the .089 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 104 games (+26.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+19.70 Units / 37% ROI)