Tigers vs Phillies Game Highlights – Sunday, August 3, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Detroit Tigers on August 3, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with impressive records, with the Phillies sitting at 62-48 and the Tigers at 65-47. This Interleague series marks the third game between these clubs, and both squads are looking to solidify their standings as they approach the final stretch of the season. The Phillies’ recent performance has been noteworthy, featuring a complete game shutout from their ace last week, showcasing their pitching depth.

Projected starters Cristopher Sanchez and Charlie Morton present a classic contrast in form. Sanchez, rated as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts a stellar 9-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.55. His ability to strike out hitters, reflected in a 26.3% strikeout rate, will be crucial against a Tigers offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts. Sanchez projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs and 5.3 hits, which bodes well for the Phillies.

Conversely, Charlie Morton has struggled this season, with a 7-8 record and a problematic ERA of 5.42. While his xFIP suggests he might improve, today’s estimates project him to allow 3.2 earned runs and 2.5 walks, which could be a significant liability against the Phillies, who rank 8th in overall offense and 7th in team batting average.

With the Phillies favored at -185 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.57 runs, they are positioned to capitalize on Morton’s inconsistencies. In contrast, the Tigers, despite a solid season, face an uphill battle with an implied team total of just 3.43 runs. This game promises to be an intriguing clash of pitching prowess versus offensive firepower.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  Charlie Morton has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.42 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.71 — a 0.71 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Riley Greene has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Detroit Tigers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-180)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.332) provides evidence that Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck this year with his .286 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+9.66 Units / 13% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 64 of their last 110 games (+16.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)