Detroit Tigers
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-140
On April 16, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Detroit Tigers at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Brewers come into this game with an average record of 9-9, while the Tigers are faring better at 10-7, marking a solid start to their season. In their previous matchup, the Brewers lost to the Tigers, raising the stakes for this third game in the series.
The Brewers are projected to send out Jose Quintana, a left-handed pitcher who boasts an impressive ERA of 0.00 over his limited appearances this season, despite ranking as the 211th-best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. With a projected 5.5 innings pitched, Quintana is expected to allow 2.4 earned runs, while his low strikeout rate may benefit him against a high-strikeout Tigers offense. Meanwhile, Keider Montero will take the mound for Detroit, and his performance has raised concerns, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. His projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs indicates he could struggle against a Brewers lineup that, although ranked 21st in offensive potential, has the ability to capitalize on pitching deficiencies.
Betting lines favor the Brewers, who hold a moneyline of -145, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.31 runs. The projections indicate that the Brewers could outperform their offensive capabilities against Montero’s shaky performance. With both bullpens rated in the top 10, the Brewers may just have the edge in this matchup, particularly if their best hitter continues to build on his recent success. This clash could be a turning point for either team as they navigate the early season.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under StrikeoutsKeider Montero has notched an 8.2% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, ranking in the 19th percentile.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Spencer Torkelson has big-time HR ability (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Torkelson.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The Detroit Tigers have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Ryan Kreidler, Justyn-Henry Malloy).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Tallying 92.8 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, Jose Quintana places him the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Garrett Mitchell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 97.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Andy Ibanez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Andy Ibanez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)