Tigers vs Brewers Value Bets and Betting Line – 4/16/2025

Detroit Tigers

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on April 16, 2025, the stakes are significant. The Brewers are currently sitting at .500 with a 9-9 record, while the Tigers, boasting a strong 10-7 record, are looking to maintain their momentum after a tough loss yesterday, where they were shut out 5-0 by Milwaukee.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has shown promise this season with a flawless 0.00 ERA, albeit in just one start. Quintana’s last outing was impressive, going seven innings without allowing a single earned run. However, the advanced projections suggest that he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 3.29, indicating potential regression. He’ll be facing a Tigers offense that, while ranked 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, may struggle against his low-strikeout approach, which could play into Quintana’s hands.

On the other side, the Tigers will send right-hander Keider Montero to the mound. Montero’s projections aren’t encouraging, as he’s expected to pitch just 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. His last start was abbreviated, lasting only one inning, which raises concerns about his ability to go deep into the game.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 20th in MLB, a ranking that reflects their struggles at the plate. Conversely, the Tigers sit at 11th, showcasing a more balanced lineup. Despite the Brewers’ offensive woes, they have a solid bullpen ranked 10th, which could be crucial if the game remains close.

With the Brewers favored at -150 and an implied total of 4.35 runs, they hope to build on their recent success and capitalize on the Tigers’ misfortunes. This matchup promises to be intriguing, as both teams look to assert their identities in this interleague clash.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Keider Montero has notched an 8.2% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, ranking in the 19th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Spencer Torkelson has big-time HR ability (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Torkelson.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Detroit Tigers today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .300, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .313 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Jose Quintana (44.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.8 mph last year to 82.8 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Andy Ibanez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Andy Ibanez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)