Tickets Information for Tigers vs Guardians – September 25, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

On September 25, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field in a pivotal American League Central matchup. Both teams have been performing well lately, with the Guardians at 86-72 and the Tigers at 85-73, making this an intriguing series. Notably, the Guardians won yesterday’s game against the Tigers, adding pressure on Detroit to perform today.

Projected starters Parker Messick and Keider Montero present a compelling contrast. Messick, a left-handed pitcher, boasts an impressive 2.08 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record in just six starts this season. Despite being ranked 128th among MLB starters, his excellent ERA suggests he has benefited from some good fortune, as indicated by his 3.12 xFIP. However, he has struggled with hits allowed, projecting to give up 4.9 hits and 1.5 walks on average today, which could be a concern against a solid Tigers lineup.

Conversely, Montero has had a rougher season, with a 4.48 ERA and a 5.20 FIP, indicating he may also be due for regression. He projects to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Guardians offense that, despite ranking 29th in the league, holds potential for an uptick in performance.

The Guardians’ bullpen is ranked 19th in MLB, while the Tigers’ bullpen is slightly better at 13th. With the Guardians favored at -160, the projections suggest they have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, which could be attainable given their recent success. In contrast, the Tigers are looking at a low implied total of 3.35 runs, making this a critical game for them as they attempt to bounce back.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Keider Montero has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under Hits
  Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Parker Messick – Over/Under Strikeouts
  With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under Total Bases
  Bo Naylor has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (C.J. Kayfus, George Valera, Gabriel Arias).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-165)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 60 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)