Tickets Information for Tigers vs Guardians – September 25, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on September 25, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams, as they are in tight contention for a Wild Card spot. Currently, the Guardians hold an 86-72 record, while the Tigers are right behind them at 85-73. In their last meeting, the Guardians secured a decisive 5-1 victory over the Tigers, giving them momentum heading into this crucial game.

The Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Parker Messick, who has a solid ERA of 2.08 this season, although his xFIP of 3.12 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. Despite being ranked the 128th best starting pitcher out of roughly 350, Messick boasts an undefeated record of 3-0 this year. However, he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, which is concerning, as he may allow 2.3 earned runs, 4.9 hits, and 1.5 walks.

On the other side, the Tigers will send right-handed pitcher Troy Melton to the mound. Melton’s recent outing was impressive, pitching 5 innings with no earned runs, making him a potential threat despite his projections indicating he may struggle today. His average performance, with projections of 1.2 earned runs and 2.3 hits allowed, could be enough to keep the Tigers competitive.

Offensively, the Guardians rank a dismal 29th in MLB, particularly struggling with their batting average, while the Tigers sit in the middle of the pack at 12th best offensively. This disparity may impact the game’s dynamics, especially considering the Guardians’ projected team total of 4.15 runs, which reflects their struggles at the plate. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Guardians as favorites, particularly given their recent form and the Tigers’ underwhelming hitting stats.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Parker Messick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 7 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Angel Martinez’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 87.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Parker Messick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 60 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-185)
  Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)