Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
(-120/+100)-110
On June 24, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Seattle Mariners at Target Field in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested matchup. Both teams are seeking to improve their standings, with the Mariners at 40-37 and the Twins at 37-41. Despite the Twins’ struggles this season, they boast a strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, while the Mariners’ bullpen sits at 1st, showcasing the depth both teams possess in relief pitching.
In their most recent outing, the Mariners faced the Twins and emerged victorious, continuing their positive momentum as they look to solidify their position in the playoff race. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Chris Paddack for the Twins and Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Paddack, currently ranked 151st among starting pitchers, has had a challenging season with a 3-6 record and an average ERA of 4.48. He has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks on average today.
Conversely, Castillo, with a solid 4-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.37, is viewed as an average pitcher according to power rankings. While he projects to allow 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks, his overall performance has been considerably better than Paddack’s this season.
Offensively, the Mariners rank 8th in MLB, driven by a powerful lineup that has amassed 105 home runs, bolstered by a standout performance from their best hitter, who has been on fire lately with a .480 batting average and 14 RBIs in the past week. In contrast, the Twins rank 16th, struggling particularly with a league-worst ranking in stolen bases.
With the game total set at 8.5 runs and both teams having equal moneyline odds of -110, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially considering the contrasting forms of both pitchers. The Mariners look to capitalize on Paddack’s vulnerabilities while the Twins aim to leverage their strong bullpen to pull off a surprising win.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 95.5-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Cal Raleigh has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Today, Luke Raley is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (81st percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Because groundball pitchers have a big advantage over groundball bats, Chris Paddack and his 34% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot today being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Castillo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Placing 5th-steepest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters collectively have put up a 15.5° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced metric to measure power ability).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 73 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)