Tickets Information for Brewers vs Cubs – July 23, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Chicago Cubs

On July 23, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field in the second game of their series. The Cubs, sitting at a 49-53 record, are having a below-average season. In contrast, the Brewers boast a 57-43 record, showcasing a strong performance this year. The Cubs took the first game of the series yesterday with a 3-1 victory, defying expectations as underdogs.

Today’s pitching matchup features right-handers Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Colin Rea for the Brewers. Taillon, who ranks 121st among approximately 350 starting pitchers, has been somewhat fortunate this season with a solid 3.10 ERA despite a higher 4.18 xFIP, indicating potential regression. Meanwhile, Rea, considered one of the worst pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has also benefited from some luck, with a 3.77 ERA and a 4.48 xFIP.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 19th in overall performance but struggle in batting average (25th) and home runs (23rd). However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 9th. Their bullpen is a significant weakness, ranking 28th in the league. The Brewers, on the other hand, have an 8th-ranked offense with strengths in batting average (5th) and stolen bases (2nd), but they lag in home runs (20th). Their bullpen is also a concern, ranking 21st.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 54% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market’s implied 50%. This suggests a favorable edge for bettors considering the Cubs. Both teams are projected to score over 5 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.

In a close matchup, the Cubs’ slight edge in pitching and recent momentum from yesterday’s win could be decisive. Keep an eye on how Taillon’s control fares against the Brewers’ patient lineup, and whether the Cubs’ offense can capitalize on Rea’s vulnerabilities.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  As it relates to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has had positive variance on his side this year. His 19.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Jameson Taillon has recorded 17.4 outs per start this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mike Tauchman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 77 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 40% ROI)