Stream the Pirates vs Cubs Game Live – 6/13/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on June 13, 2025, both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Cubs edged out the Pirates 3-2. The Cubs have been riding high this season with a record of 42-27, solidifying their standing as contenders in the National League Central. In contrast, the Pirates sit at 28-42, struggling to find their rhythm and mired in a tough season.

Cade Horton, who has had a somewhat uneventful season overall, takes the mound for the Cubs. Despite being the 128th ranked starting pitcher in MLB per advanced stats, Horton has managed a respectable 3-1 record with an ERA of 4.11. However, his last outing saw him allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings against a less potent lineup. Today’s projection estimates he will pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out only 4.7 batters on average.

On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes, projected as one of the premier pitchers in the sport, ranked 2nd overall. Skenes comes off a stellar performance, tossing 8 innings of shutout ball with a mere 2 hits and 7 strikeouts. His current ERA stands at an impressive 1.88, with projections suggesting he will allow just 2.1 earned runs today while striking out an average of 6.7 batters.

The Cubs have a potent offense, ranking 4th in the league and showcasing their strength with 96 home runs this season. However, against Skenes, who boasts a 49% ground ball rate, they may find it challenging to convert their power into runs. Betting markets reflect the close nature of this contest, with both teams’ moneylines being set very similarly. Overall, while the projections lean towards cautious optimism for the Cubs, this matchup could swing either way, depending on how Skenes manages to hold back the Cubs’ elite batters.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Considering that groundball batters hold a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes and his 48.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering the 1 difference between Cade Horton’s 7.34 K/9 and his 8.34 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to positively regress in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Ian Happ has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 86.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 53 games (+9.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)