Stream the Padres vs Pirates Game Live – 5/02/2025

San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 2, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Diego Padres at PNC Park in the opening game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons so far. The Pirates sit at 12-20, struggling with a 26th-ranked offense and a 29th-ranked bullpen, while the Padres boast a strong 19-11 record, fueled by a solid 14th-ranked offense.

In their last outings, the Pirates faced a disappointing loss on May 1, falling 8-3, while the Padres celebrated a victory, edging the competition with a 5-3 win. Today, the Pirates will look to Mitch Keller to turn their fortunes around. Despite being rated as the 190th best starting pitcher in MLB, Keller has shown flashes of potential, boasting a 3.97 ERA this season, though his underlying metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky. He projects to pitch around 6.0 innings and allow 3.2 earned runs, which might be enough against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd in batting average but struggles with power, ranking 24th in home runs.

Dylan Cease, projected to start for the Padres, is rated significantly higher at 31st among MLB starters. Although his ERA of 5.76 is troubling, his projections indicate he could improve, allowing an average of only 2.5 earned runs today. Additionally, he has the advantage of facing a Pirates offense that has struggled to convert flyballs into home runs.

Betting markets suggest this will be a competitive game, with the Pirates at +115 and the Padres at -135. Given the Pirates’ current form and Keller’s potential, they may present a value bet despite their overall struggles this season.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Iglesias tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Mitch Keller’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.7% vs. 47.7% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Oneil Cruz has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last year to 23.5% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-180)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)