Starting Lineup for Tigers vs Rays – June 22, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off against the Detroit Tigers on June 22, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field. After the Rays secured a convincing 8-3 victory over the Tigers in their last game, the stakes are high as both teams look to establish dominance in this series. Currently, the Tigers hold the edge in the standings with a record of 48-30, while the Rays are hovering at 43-34, reflecting a solid but not exceptional season thus far.

On the mound for the Rays will be Zack Littell, who has struggled more than expected this year. With a win-loss record of 6-7 and an ERA of 3.88, he has been somewhat lucky with his performance, as his 5.33 FIP indicates a potential for decline. Projected to pitch 5.5 innings today, he will need to navigate a Tigers lineup that strikes out frequently, which may work to his advantage given his low strikeout rate.

Casey Mize, the Tigers’ starter, comes in with an impressive ERA of 2.96 and a solid 7-2 record, indicating a strong performance this season. Although Mize projects similarly in innings pitched to Littell, his track record points to a higher likelihood of success.

Offensively, the Rays rank 4th in batting average and boast the best stolen base performance in MLB this season. However, their power numbers are only average, ranking 13th in home runs. This contrasts with the Tigers, who sit at 7th overall in offensive ranking but struggle with stolen bases, ranking dead last in that category.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and a moneyline of -110 for both teams, oddsmakers believe this matchup will be tightly contested. Given the recent success of the Rays and their ability to bounce back after a loss, they may have the edge as they look to level the series.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Casey Mize (45.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Baez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Littell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Detroit Tigers have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  With a 1.57 gap between Zack Littell’s 3.88 ERA and his 5.46 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to see negative regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Josh Lowe is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 73 games (+11.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)