Starting Lineup for Tigers vs Rays – June 22, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Detroit Tigers at George M. Steinbrenner Field on June 22, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with different trajectories this season. The Rays currently sit with a record of 43-34, while the Tigers lead the way at 48-30. This game marks the third in the series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum as they approach the midpoint of the season.

In their previous encounter, the Rays managed to take down the Tigers, showcasing their offensive prowess. However, Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell, projected to start, has struggled this season, ranking as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a 6-7 record and a decent ERA of 3.88, Littell’s underlying metrics suggest he has been fortunate thus far, with a 5.32 FIP indicating potential regression. Facing him will be Casey Mize, an average pitcher with a solid 2.96 ERA and a 7-2 record, who has been more consistent throughout the season.

The Rays’ offense, ranked 13th overall and 1st in stolen bases, has shown flashes of effectiveness, although their power numbers are middling at 16th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Tigers sit 7th in overall offensive rankings but struggle significantly with stolen bases, ranking dead last in that category. This offensive disparity could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, reflecting their closely matched profiles. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, it’s expected to be a competitive showdown. As both teams aim for a win to bolster their standings, the matchup between Littell’s low-strikeout profile and the Tigers’ high-strikeout offense could ultimately dictate the flow of the game.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Casey Mize (45.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Baez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Littell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Detroit Tigers have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zack Littell will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under Hits
  Josh Lowe is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 73 games (+11.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+5.55 Units / 93% ROI)