Starting Lineup for Rockies vs Padres – September 12, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies on September 12, 2025, in a matchup that follows the Padres’ 2-0 victory over the Rockies in their previous game. With the Padres holding a record of 80-67, they are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies struggle at 40-107, marking a dismal year for them.

In this contest, the Padres will send left-handed pitcher JP Sears to the mound, who has had a mixed season with an 8-10 record and a 5.01 ERA. However, his 4.22 xERA suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Sears faces a Rockies offense that has been the 2nd worst in MLB in terms of strikeouts, which could work to his advantage. Conversely, Tanner Gordon, the Rockies’ right-handed starter, has an even tougher season with a 6.60 ERA and has struggled in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Offensively, the Padres rank 17th overall in MLB, with a solid batting average of .253, but they have been lacking in power, sitting 29th in home runs. The Rockies, on the other hand, rank 27th in offensive production and 23rd in batting average, making it difficult for them to generate consistent scoring.

Despite the Padres’ inconsistent offensive output, they are favored heavily in this matchup with a moneyline of -290, reflecting a strong implied team total of 5.30 runs. The projections indicate that the Padres should capitalize on the Rockies’ poor performance this season, making them the team to watch in this contest.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Considering the 1.92 deviation between Tanner Gordon’s 6.60 ERA and his 4.68 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year and should positively regress in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Over the past 7 days, Ezequiel Tovar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  JP Sears’s 2024-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 1st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jake Cronenworth will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 146 games (+15.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 72 away games (+20.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)
  Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)