Simulation and Insights for Royals vs Twins Match Preview – Wednesday August 14, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals on August 14, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting American League Central matchup. The Twins are currently 67-52, riding high after a dominant 13-3 victory over the Royals just yesterday. Meanwhile, the Royals are 65-55 and have been performing slightly above average this season.

Twins’ pitcher Louie Varland, projected to start, has struggled this year with an 0-4 record and a troubling ERA of 6.46. Despite his challenges, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his 4.24 xFIP, which suggests potential improvement. Varland’s low strikeout rate could be an issue against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-heavy in MLB, giving Kansas City an advantage in making contact.

On the other side, the Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans has had a solid season, with a 9-7 record and a commendable 3.27 ERA, ranking him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His last outing was impressive, allowing just one earned run over six innings, showcasing his potential to keep the Royals competitive in this game.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Twins rank 6th in MLB this season, while the Royals sit at 12th. The projections favor the Royals slightly, projecting them to score 5.10 runs on average compared to the Twins’ 4.17. Given the current odds, there may be value in betting on the Royals, which could be an attractive option for sports bettors looking for an edge.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Over his last 3 outings, Cole Ragans has seen a notable fall off in his fastball velocity: from 95 mph over the entire season to 93.9 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kansas City has been the #28 team in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41.4% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Louie Varland – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 13.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Louie Varland places in the 18th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Trevor Larnach has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins as a group rank 10th- overall in baseball this year when it comes to the maximum exit velocity of all of the balls their [HITTER}s have hit.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 37 games at home (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 118 games (+6.39 Units / 4% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)