See the White Sox vs Guardians Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Friday September 12th, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on September 12, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around in this pivotal American League Central matchup. The Guardians currently hold a record of 75-71, marking an average season, while the White Sox sit at a dismal 57-90, reflecting a significant struggle throughout the year.

In their last game against each other, the Guardians edged the White Sox with a narrow 3-2 victory, but both teams have had mixed results recently, with the White Sox winning their latest outing 5-1. Cleveland is projected to start Tanner Bibee, who boasts a Power Rankings position of 62nd among starting pitchers, suggesting he is above average. Bibee’s recent form is promising; he performed well in his last start on September 6, pitching 7 innings with only 2 earned runs.

Martin Perez, the White Sox’s projected starter, hasn’t fared as well recently, having allowed 6 earned runs over just 4 innings in his last start. While Perez has an impressive ERA of 3.15, his underlying metrics indicate he could be due for regression, as suggested by his elevated 4.90 xFIP.

Cleveland’s batting lineup has struggled this season, ranking 29th overall in MLB, while the White Sox are not far behind at 27th. However, despite their offensive woes, the Guardians are betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a 58% implied win probability, possibly due to their stronger pitching matchup.

Given the context of both teams’ records and recent performances, the Guardians appear poised to capitalize on the White Sox’s pitching weaknesses, aiming for a crucial win as they attempt to solidify their standing in the division.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Martin Perez has used his secondary offerings 7.3% more often this season (66.3%) than he did last season (59%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Andrew Benintendi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2245-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a notable 116-rpm decrease from last year’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Austin Hedges has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 80.1-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 141 games (+10.79 Units / 7% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 100 games (+17.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+11.80 Units / 197% ROI)