See the Weather Forecast for Tigers vs Astros – Monday, April 28th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Houston Astros

As the Detroit Tigers roll into Houston for the first game of their series against the Astros on April 28, 2025, they carry the momentum of a dominant 7-0 victory in their last game. Meanwhile, the Astros are looking to build on their recent success after winning 7-3 on April 27. Both teams are navigating competitive seasons, with the Tigers holding a strong 18-10 record, while the Astros are slightly above .500 at 14-13.

On the mound, the Tigers will send Jack Flaherty to the hill, who has been impressive with a 2.63 ERA, ranking him as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB. In his last outing, Flaherty pitched effectively for 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while racking up 9 strikeouts. On the other side, the Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco, who has struggled this season, sporting a 5.01 ERA and ranking 188th among MLB starters. Notably, Blanco pitched well in his last start on April 22, going 7 innings and allowing only 1 earned run.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 11th in MLB, showcasing an average lineup that can capitalize on pitching mistakes. In contrast, the Astros sit at 25th in MLB offensive rankings, struggling notably in power with just 21 home runs this season. This mismatch could favor Flaherty, especially considering he is a flyball pitcher facing an Astros team that has demonstrated a lack of power.

Despite their poor rankings, the Astros’ advanced-stat Power Rankings rate their bullpen as the 13th best, which could play a crucial role if the game is close late. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicative of the expected pitcher’s duel. With both teams looking to gain ground in the standings, this matchup carries significant weight as they aim to assert dominance in the American League.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last season (93.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ronel Blanco.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Ronel Blanco is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the past week, Cam Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.4% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Riley Greene has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+7.95 Units / 159% ROI)