See the Weather Forecast for Red Sox vs Rays – Wednesday, April 16th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

On April 16, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Rays sit at 8-9, while the Red Sox are slightly ahead at 9-10, both struggling to find their footing early this season. In their last encounter, the Red Sox pulled off a narrow victory over the Rays, leaving Tampa Bay eager to even the series.

Rays’ starter Zack Littell is projected to take the mound, bringing an unsightly 0-3 record and a rough ERA of 6.88 this season. However, he possesses a promising 3.73 xFIP, suggesting he might have faced some tough luck thus far. Littell’s ability to limit walks (4.3 BB%) could play a crucial role against the Red Sox, who rank 6th in MLB for drawing walks. With a low strikeout rate of 20.0 K%, Littell may find a favorable matchup against a Red Sox lineup that leads the league in strikeouts.

On the other side, Sean Newcomb is expected to start for Boston. Newcomb carries his own struggles with a 0-2 record and a 4.97 ERA, but like Littell, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he could improve. The Rays’ offense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 6th in MLB, highlighting their batting prowess and ability to put runs on the board, ranking #3 in team batting average and #4 in stolen bases.

Given the projections and how poorly Newcomb has performed relative to his advanced metrics, Tampa Bay may capitalize on their home field advantage. With a current moneyline of -140, the Rays are seen as favorites, and their strong offensive showing this season could help them secure a much-needed win against a Red Sox team that is searching for consistency.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sean Newcomb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 9 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Sean Newcomb will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Romy Gonzalez is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jose Caballero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Tampa Bay Rays in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 20 away games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)