See the Weather Forecast for Rays vs Tigers – Tuesday, July 8th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay Rays

@
Detroit Tigers logo

Detroit Tigers

+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)
-125

The Detroit Tigers will host the Tampa Bay Rays for the second game of their series on July 8, 2025, after a decisive 5-1 victory for the Tigers the previous day. Currently, the Tigers boast an impressive 58-34 record, positioning themselves as one of the more dominant teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 49-42, having shown signs of improvement but still trailing behind in the playoff race.

Jack Flaherty is projected to start for the Tigers, despite his below-average 4.84 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics suggest a potential for better performance, as his 3.69 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky. Flaherty has struck out 6.1 batters per game on average, though his projections also indicate a troubling trend of allowing 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks. Conversely, Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays, bringing a solid 3.34 ERA and ranking just slightly higher in the advanced statistics at #69 among MLB starters. His projections reveal a similar concern, as his metrics indicate he might have benefitted from luck this season.

The Tigers offense is firing on all cylinders, currently ranked 6th in the league and showcasing strong power numbers with a 6th place ranking in home runs. This is a stark contrast to the Rays, who rank 11th overall and 14th in home runs, making them a more average offensive unit.

With the Tigers’ potent offense and a stronger bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, giving the Tigers a moneyline of -135 and a projected team total of 4.23 runs for today’s game. In contrast, the Rays are listed at +115 with a team total of 3.77 runs. Given the current trends, expect the Tigers to continue their strong performance at Comerica Park.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
    Out of all starters, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm ranks in the 79th percentile this year.
    Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
  • Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
    Extreme flyball hitters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.
    Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
  • Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
    The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

  • Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
    Jack Flaherty is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
    Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
  • Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
    Matt Vierling is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
    Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
  • Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
    Matt Vierling has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
    The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 89 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
    The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
    Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)