See the Weather Forecast for Orioles vs Blue Jays – Sunday, March 30th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on March 30, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Blue Jays, currently at 1-2, are enduring a rough start to the season, while the Orioles are off to a strong 2-1 begin, adding to the tension of this pivotal fourth game in the series. In their last outing, the teams battled it out in a closely contested game that showcased the intensity of their rivalry.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Chris Bassitt, who, despite being ranked as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, brings an average performance to the game. Bassitt projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. However, he struggles with allowing hits, projected to give up 5.0, and walks, with 1.9 on average. This could be a concern against an Orioles lineup that is performing well early in the season.

Opposing Bassitt is Tomoyuki Sugano, who ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Sugano projects to pitch only 4.9 innings, giving up 3.2 earned runs while striking out a mere 2.4 batters and allowing 5.8 hits and 1.3 walks. Given these projections, the Blue Jays’ offense, with an implied team total of 4.76 runs, may find favorable matchups against Sugano.

With both teams looking to assert dominance in this series, betting markets suggest that this game will be close, indicating the potential for an exciting showdown at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will aim to capitalize on their higher implied team total, while the Orioles hope to maintain their early-season momentum.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+115)
  Out of every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Cedric Mullins has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 15.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  George Springer is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games at home (+15.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.55 Units / 67% ROI)