See the Weather Forecast for Blue Jays vs Rays – Sunday, May 25th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 25, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, boasting identical records of 25-26. This American League East matchup is crucial for both teams, especially as they aim to gain momentum in a competitive division. The Rays are coming off a tough loss in their last game, which saw them struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Ryan Pepiot is set to take the mound for the Rays, and while he has had an average season with a 2-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.99, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. His xERA of 4.72 indicates that regression might be on the horizon. Pepiot’s low strikeout rate (19.9 K%) could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that is adept at making contact, ranking as the 2nd least strikeout-prone offense in MLB.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. With an impressive 4-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.83, Bassitt has proven to be a reliable arm. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.6 innings and allow approximately 2.8 earned runs, which aligns with his performance this season.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, struggling to find consistent power, particularly with only 23rd in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, leading the league in that category. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays sit at 19th in overall offense, but their batting average ranks a respectable 13th.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the betting landscape reflects a close contest, with the Rays slightly favored at -115. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Rays to leverage their speed against a solid Blue Jays pitching staff, while both teams look to break out of their average offensive performances.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Because of his large platoon split, Chris Bassitt will not have the upper hand going up against 7 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Anthony Santander is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all SPs, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.2-mph average last season has fallen to 81.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)