See the Updated Player Rankings for Phillies vs Mariners – August 2, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners

On August 2, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Philadelphia Phillies at T-Mobile Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Mariners, with a record of 57-53, are having an above-average season but sit on the fringes of contention. Meanwhile, the Phillies are in a strong position with a record of 65-43, showcasing a great performance this season.

In their last game, the Mariners played the Chicago White Sox, where they struggled offensively, continuing a trend that sees their offense ranked 27th in the league. Conversely, the Phillies are riding high with a potent offense that ranks 7th, buoyed by Kyle Schwarber’s impressive performance over the last week, where he has a .389 batting average and a 1.621 OPS.

On the mound, the Mariners will turn to Bryan Woo, who has excelled with a solid ERA of 2.35 and a Win/Loss record of 4-1 in 11 starts this year. However, the projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP sits at 4.07, indicating potential struggles ahead. His ability to limit walks (2.9 BB%) may mitigate some of the Phillies’ strengths, as they rank 4th in walks drawn.

The Phillies will counter with Tyler Phillips, who has a perfect 3-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.80, but like Woo, he has benefited from favorable circumstances, reflected in his xFIP of 3.44. This matchup favors the Mariners slightly, as they have an implied team total of 4.10 runs against the Phillies’ 3.90, indicating a tighter contest than expected.

With both teams needing to make a statement early in this series, expect a competitive game that could swing either way based on the performance of the starting pitchers and the offensive prowess on display.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Over his last 3 games started, Tyler Phillips has posted a terrific ERA of 1.71.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  As it relates to his batting average, Trea Turner has had positive variance on his side this year. His .318 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Bryan Woo has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 18.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 61 of their last 102 games (+16.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)