See the Updated Player Rankings for Padres vs Rays – 8/28/26

San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays

San Diego Padres Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Casey Mize was in good form in his last outing and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s matchup, Fernando Tatis Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane McClanahan – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+175/-230)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Shane McClanahan has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -13.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)