See the Updated Player Rankings for Cubs vs Astros – June 29, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Houston Astros

On June 29, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park. Both teams stand at an impressive 49-34, showcasing their competitive edge this season. The Astros are projected to start Framber Valdez, who has been a standout pitcher with an 8-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.88. Valdez is currently ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his elite performance this year.

In contrast, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who carries a more modest record of 7-5 and an average ERA of 4.47. Taillon’s peripherals suggest he may struggle, with a FIP of 5.17, indicating he’s been fortunate this season. The Astros’ offense ranks 14th overall but excels in batting average, sitting 5th in MLB, while the Cubs boast the 4th best offense, highlighted by their power with 124 home runs, ranking 2nd in the league.

Valdez’s high groundball rate (61 GB%) could prove advantageous against the Cubs’ powerful lineup, as he aims to keep the ball on the ground and limit their home-run potential. Meanwhile, Taillon’s low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) faces a Houston offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

As the Astros enter as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, the projections indicate a high team total of 4.35 runs, reflecting their offensive strength and Valdez’s prowess on the mound. This matchup could be pivotal as both teams continue their pursuit of a strong postseason position.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jameson Taillon is expected to post an average of 17 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Seiya Suzuki has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs batters jointly place 6th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 10.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Because of his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will be in a good position being matched up with 7 batters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)