See the Updated Player Rankings for Astros vs Pirates – June 3, 2025

Houston Astros

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 3, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros in what marks the first game of their interleague series at PNC Park. The Pirates have struggled this season, currently sitting at 22-38, while the Astros have managed to keep their heads above water with a 32-27 record. This matchup is particularly crucial as the Pirates are in search of momentum after a recent loss to the Atlanta Braves, where they fell 6-4 on June 1.

The Pirates will send elite right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound, who has been a standout this year, ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Skenes has a stellar ERA of 2.15, although his 3.07 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. He pitched a gem in his last outing, going 7 innings with no earned runs, showcasing his potential to dominate.

In contrast, the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., who has struggled this season with a 5.89 ERA and a 0-1 record. While McCullers Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance, including a 12-strikeout game in his last start, he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 27th in MLB. This is a matchup that heavily favors Skenes, especially since the Pirates are known for their high strikeout rate, which plays into McCullers Jr.’s strengths.

Despite the Pirates’ overall poor performance, they are currently favored with a moneyline of -155, suggesting some confidence in Skenes to lead the team to victory. With the projections favoring the Pirates to score around 3.84 runs, they’ll need to capitalize on their chances against an Astros lineup that has been average this season. As the teams clash, all eyes will be on Skenes to see if he can continue his impressive form and help the Pirates turn their season around.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Lance McCullers Jr. figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Paul Skenes’s 97.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.5-mph decrease from last season’s 98.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+140/-180)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-180/+140)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)